Healthcare leaders think industry will struggle in 2026
Healthcare leaders think their organizations will be fine while bracing for industry-wide pain in 2026 — and that gap in perception is exactly where HR gets caught flat-footed.
The news
A new survey covered by HR Executive finds that while nearly three-quarters of healthcare executives believe their own organizations will be as strong or stronger in 2026, more than half expect the broader healthcare industry to face a worse year ahead. In other words: everyone thinks the sector is heading for trouble — they just don’t think it’ll hit them.
My take
This is the healthcare version of the Lake Wobegon effect, and it has real consequences for HR leaders in this space.
When executives believe the storm is coming for everyone else, they under-prepare. They delay the hard workforce decisions — rightsizing, reskilling, care model redesign — until the pressure is undeniable. And by then, HR is in reactive mode, not strategic mode.
I’ve seen this dynamic play out with clients across healthcare-adjacent businesses over the past two years. The organizations that struggled most weren’t the ones hit hardest by external forces. They were the ones where HR hadn’t been invited to the scenario planning table early enough to shape the response. When the forecast finally got bad enough to take seriously, there was no workforce strategy ready to execute — just a lot of scrambling dressed up as agility.
The optimism gap in this survey is actually a signal for HR leaders, not just a curiosity. If your executive team believes the organization is insulated from what’s coming industrywide, that’s a misalignment you need to close. That means bringing workforce risk into the strategic planning conversation now — before Q1 budget pressure turns “we should probably think about this” into “we needed a plan three months ago.”
Healthcare HR has spent years earning credibility through COVID response, workforce shortages, and contract labor cost crises. That credibility has a shelf life. If HR isn’t driving the 2026 scenario conversation, someone else will — and they won’t have workforce as the organizing principle.
The so-what
I’d tell my HR clients in healthcare to treat this survey as a brief window of opportunity. Your leadership is forecasting external turbulence while still feeling internally confident — that’s the exact moment they’re most open to proactive workforce planning conversations. Use it.
Bring the scenarios. Model the talent risks. Show what “the industry struggles but we’re fine” actually requires from a workforce standpoint. The CHRO who walks into that conversation with a point of view earns the seat. The one who waits for marching orders loses it.
Optimism without a workforce plan isn’t a strategy — it’s just hope with a better slide deck.